Introduction: Pastoral prosperities

Pastoral prosperity in crisis

Pastoralist women's pathways to prosperity: Collective solidarity, commoning and moral economy practices in Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands

Pastoral prosperities: Rethinking African drylands

Behavioural considerations for effective early and anticipatory action

As the climate changes, camels offer stability in the Horn of Africa

Weather and climate information for pastoralists: Opportunities and pathways

Health systems and anticipatory actions for resilient drylands

Blending multiple knowledges for action: Weather and climate information services in pastoralist contexts

How can anticipatory action better support pastoralists?

Resilient horizons: Re-thinking sustainable risk solutions for pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa

In early April 2026, the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action convened an ‘evidence capitalization workshop’ with partners to synthesize insights and messages on Advancing Early Action for Dryland Resilience and Prosperity in the Horn of Africa. This video records initial messages from the team co-creating a matching brief on this subject.

Rethinking social protection in the drylands: Lessons from pastoralist mutual assistance and solidarity networks

In early April 2026, the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action convened an ‘evidence capitalization workshop’ with partners to synthesize insights and messages on Advancing Early Action for Dryland Resilience and Prosperity in the Horn of Africa. This video records initial messages from the team co-creating a matching brief on this subject.

Blending multiple knowledges for action: Climate information services in pastoralist contexts

In early April 2026, the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action convened an ‘evidence capitalization workshop’ with partners to synthesize insights and messages on Advancing Early Action for Dryland Resilience and Prosperity in the Horn of Africa. This video records initial messages from the team co-creating a matching brief on this subject.

Earth observation forecasting: Can we prevent livestock feed crises?

In early April 2026, the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action convened an ‘evidence capitalization workshop’ with partners to synthesize insights and messages on Advancing Early Action for Dryland Resilience and Prosperity in the Horn of Africa. This video records initial messages from the team co-creating a matching brief on this subject.

Weather and climate information for pastoralists: Opportunities and pathways

In early April 2026, the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action convened an ‘evidence capitalization workshop’ with partners to synthesize insights and messages on Advancing Early Action for Dryland Resilience and Prosperity in the Horn of Africa. This video records initial messages from the team co-creating a matching brief on this subject.

How can anticipatory action better support pastoralists?

In early April 2026, the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action convened an ‘evidence capitalization workshop’ with partners to synthesize insights and messages on Advancing Early Action for Dryland Resilience and Prosperity in the Horn of Africa. This video records initial messages from the team co-creating a matching brief on this subject.

Health systems and anticipatory actions for resilient drylands

In early April 2026, the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action convened an ‘evidence capitalization workshop’ with partners to synthesize insights and messages on Advancing Early Action for Dryland Resilience and Prosperity in the Horn of Africa. This video records initial messages from the team co-creating a matching brief on this subject.

Effective drought early warning in dryland communities – how multiple knowledge systems intersect

Where weather and drought forecasting are concerned, people tend to focus on data, science and alerts delivered by smart phones. In the drylands of East Africa, local communities also rely on long-established traditional, indigenous and informal ways to predict weather and other natural changes. They blend these sources and channels to best suit each particular situation. This video illustrates elements of this diverse knowledge ecosystem and how they interact and evolve to deal with complex challenges.

Pastoralists blend multiple knowledges for anticipatory action in Northern Kenya

Drawing from his research with pastoralist communities in Northern Kenya, George Tsitati, PhD student at the University of Edinburgh, reflects on the multiple and indigenous knowledge systems that pastoralists use to manage shocks and risks like drought. It was recorded in Kenya in early April 2026.

Behavioural considerations for effective early and anticipatory action

In early April 2026, the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action convened an ‘evidence capitalization workshop’ with partners to synthesize insights and messages on Advancing Early Action for Dryland Resilience and Prosperity in the Horn of Africa. This video records initial messages from the team co-creating a matching brief on this subject.

Trust in early warning and early action

In early April 2026, the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action convened an ‘evidence capitalization workshop’ with partners to synthesize insights and messages on Advancing Early Action for Dryland Resilience and Prosperity in the Horn of Africa. This video records insights from writeshop participants.

Rethinking social protection in the drylands: Lessons from pastoralist mutual assistance and solidarity networks

Earth observation forecasting: Can we prevent livestock feed crises?

Resilient horizons: Rethinking sustainable risk solutions for pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa

Unlocking the potential of camels for sustainable food systems in drylands

Rethinking resilience and investment in the drylands and rangelands of Horn of Africa

Pathways and possibilities for pastoralist youth

Sustainable livestock keeping: A strategic climate solution for Africa

How can we make anticipatory action work for pastoralists?

Why institutional actors, interests and policy networks are key in rethinking humanitarian and development for pastoral areas

Report for the year to 30 June 2026

Report on activities carried out in the Observatory's fifth year of operation.

Machine Learning-based early warning system for child hunger crises in ASAL Kenya: Final report from a research impact accelerator project

This report is from a research accelerator project on ‘Improved early warning of food insecurity: Integrating forecasts based on machine learning and anthropometric data into Kenya’s National Drought Monitoring Authority.’

Early warning systems and dryland communities in the Horn of Africa: Kenya country report

This report is part of a series drafted to respond to the challenge: “How can we bridge the disconnects between food security, climate, and natural hazards early warning systems and the anticipatory actions that pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa can take to overcome recurring shocks and threats to their lives and livelihoods?”

Early warning systems and dryland communities in the Horn of Africa: Ethiopia country report

This report is part of a series drafted to respond to the challenge: “How can we bridge the disconnects between food security, climate, and natural hazards early warning systems and the anticipatory actions that pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa can take to overcome recurring shocks and threats to their lives and livelihoods?”

Next-Generation Earth Observation (EO) for Anticipatory Drought Risk Management in East African Pastoral Drylands

This report is from a research accelerator project on ‘next-generation earth observation for anticipatory drought risk management in East African pastoral drylands’ that assessed and recommended next-generation earth observation systems for anticipatory drought risk management in East African pastoral drylands.

Evaluation of alternative earth observation datasets to support operational drought risk financing and management initiatives in Kenya

This report is from a research accelerator project on ‘next-generation earth observation for anticipatory drought risk management in East African pastoral drylands’ that assessed and recommended next-generation earth observation systems for anticipatory drought risk management in East African pastoral drylands.

Exploring the potential of high-resolution Earth Observation datasets to support operational drought monitoring systems in Kenya

This report is from a research accelerator project on ‘next-generation earth observation for anticipatory drought risk management in East African pastoral drylands’ that assessed and recommended next-generation earth observation systems for anticipatory drought risk management in East African pastoral drylands.

Building the Resilience and Prosperity of Pastoralists and Dryland Communities: Summary report of the research and policy dialogue, Nairobi, Kenya, 1–2 October 2025

Involving development partners and investors, governments, civil society actors, pastoral associations, policy and research organizations, this two-day dialogue on ‘Building the Resilience and Prosperity of Pastoralists and Dryland Communities’ was convened by three research for policy and practice institutions: the IGAD Centre for Pastoral Areas and Livestock Development (ICPALD), the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action, and the Supporting Pastoralism and Agriculture in Recurrent and Protracted Crises (SPARC) programme. The conference offered a mix of sessions with presentations, plenary and panel discussions, space for audience interaction and showcased case studies, findings and good practices. Together, the sessions were designed to highlight: 1) pathways to prosperity and resilience for drylands and pastoralists; 2) advancing dryland’s futures through innovation and technology; and 3) investing in and delivering for dryland people.

Intestines to radio signals: Informing locally led anticipatory action in drylands of the Horn of Africa

Presented at Building the Resilience and Prosperity of Pastoralists and Dryland Communities, Nairobi, Kenya, 1-2 October 2025

Shock interactions and compounding impacts on food security: Evidence from Malawi

Presented at Building the Resilience and Prosperity of Pastoralists and Dryland Communities, Nairobi, Kenya, 1-2 October 2025

Feed Balances: Using earth observation data to assess feed security

Presented at Building the Resilience and Prosperity of Pastoralists and Dryland Communities, Nairobi, Kenya, 1-2 October 2025

Collaborating to improve last-mile animal health service delivery through para-professionals

Presented at Building the Resilience and Prosperity of Pastoralists and Dryland Communities, Nairobi, Kenya, 1-2 October 2025

Harvesting resilience: Community perspectives on early warning systems in Kenya

Presenting early results of the Kenya component of the Jameel Observatory 'impact collaboration' on 'How can we bridge disconnects between food security, climatic & natural hazard EWS and the anticipatory actions of pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa?'

Introducing the Dryland Futures Academy: Strengthening capacities for food security early action in East Africa

Presented at Building the Resilience and Prosperity of Pastoralists and Dryland Communities, Nairobi, Kenya, 1-2 October 2025

Locally-led anticipatory action and adaptation through community action planning (CAP) in Ethiopia: From research to action

Presented at Building the Resilience and Prosperity of Pastoralists and Dryland Communities, Nairobi, Kenya, 1-2 October 2025

Co-developing a short course on pastoralism and planetary health

Presented at Building the Resilience and Prosperity of Pastoralists and Dryland Communities, Nairobi, Kenya, 1-2 October 2025

Early warning systems and dryland communities in the Horn of Africa: A desk review of actors, challenges, and opportunities

This report is part of a series drafted to respond to the challenge: “How can we bridge the disconnects between food security, climate, and natural hazards early warning systems and the anticipatory actions that pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa can take to overcome recurring shocks and threats to their lives and livelihoods?”

Strengthening community driven anticipatory action and early warning systems in Borana Zone, Ethiopia

Recommendations from a research for action project commissioned by the Jameel Observatory. The full report is available at https://hdl.handle.net/1842/43638

Community-based Anticipatory Action in the Borana Zone, Ethiopia

This research analyses community-based anticipatory action in two pastoralist communities in the Borana region of southern Ethiopia exploring local perspectives on risk, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. The aim is to identify opportunities to strengthen anticipatory action systems that enhance food security and resilience to multiple hazards. The research comprises multiple methods. The literature review provides contextual grounding, while focus group discussions offer insight into lived experiences and socio-cultural dynamics of decision-making. A participatory action workshop fostered dialogue among community members, NGOs, and government stakeholders to co-develop actionable solutions. The findings offer a context-sensitive understanding of both the potential and limitations of anticipatory action in the Borana zone, culminating in practical recommendations for local, regional, and national actors involved in disaster preparedness and early response. The conclusion summarizes the mechanisms to be strengthened to enhance food security and resilience among the Borana pastoralists.

Report for the year to 30 June 2025

Report on activities carried out in the Observatory's fourth year of operation.

Quantifying Livestock Diet Composition Using Earth Observation (EO) Data for Improved Estimation of Enteric Methane Emissions in Kenya

Livestock directly contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, mainly through enteric fermentation and to a lesser extent manure management. Livestock feed composition plays a crucial role in diet quality and the resulting emissions from livestock. However, spatio-temporal variations in diet composition, particularly in tropical environments, remain underexplored. Furthermore, comprehensive livestock diet composition datasets, essential for accurate enteric methane emission estimation, are often lacking in developing countries. Existing datasets from global studies are highly generalised and are based on expert knowledge (Herrero et al., 2013). Other studies undertaken on livestock diet composition have often been done on a local basis (Goopy et al., 2018; Ndung’u et al., 2018; Onyango et al., 2018; Wilkes et al., 2020), with less attention on country-wide studies that can provide detailed assessment and evidence of the impact of livestock diet on greenhouse gas emissions from livestock at national or regional level. For both global and local studies, they often offer incomplete representations of livestock diet composition at best, especially in regions with diverse and poorly documented livestock feeding practices. Where data is available, it has uncertainties resulting from data collection challenges and the assumption of a constant annual distribution of diet composition (MacLeod et al., 2018). This gap in accurate data is particularly problematic in developing countries, where feed composition changes during periods of feed scarcity and plenty (Mutua et al., 2023), and this is seldom captured in existing datasets. In this study, we use freely available Earth Observation (EO) data to generate spatially and temporally explicit livestock diet composition and quality data. Our approach involves three key stages. First, we identify the length of growing period (start and end of wet and dry seasons) at a pixel level using a water balance model that incorporates climate and soil property data to calculate the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration (Jones & Thornton, 2009). Second, we determine the feed items available to livestock during these seasons through an extensive literature review and estimate their quantities using EO data including land cover/cover fraction (Buchhorn et al., 2020) and above-ground dry matter productivity from the Copernicus programme (Copernicus, 2024), crop harvest area from FEAST global data repository (ILRI, 2022), length of growing period and crop specific indices and parameters. Third, we calculate the proportion of each feed item in livestock diets at a pixel level to derive diet composition and quality data. Finally, the results are then aggregated by livestock production systems, that are specific to Kenya (Robinson et al., 2018), providing a detailed understanding of livestock diet composition patterns in Kenya. Results indicate that livestock diet composition varied between seasons and livestock production systems. Natural grass was the dominant diet component across all seasons and livestock production systems, with the highest proportion in the diet during the long wet season (41.5%). Concentrates formed the lowest proportion in the diet ranging from 0.9 to 4.7% across seasons and livestock production systems. Diet quality as well varied between seasons and livestock production systems but was in a narrow range (55.4–62.3% dry matter; DM), which was greater than the default digestibility value of 55.0% set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for livestock production systems in the region. Notably, mixed rainfed arid systems exhibited lower diet quality across all seasons. Livestock diet quality estimation using EO data demonstrated moderate to high accuracy (R² = 0.50–0.89; RMSE = 1.14–38.44% DM). These findings provide a robust basis for incorporating spatially-and-temporally explicit diet composition and quality data into life cycle assessment (LCA) models to improve GHG emission estimates from the livestock sector. Enhanced accuracy of these models can inform national-level strategies for mitigating emissions and promoting sustainable livestock production.

Earth Observation for enhanced monitoring, evaluation and learning of development programmes

Presented by Saeeda Gouhari (University of Edinburgh) at the Jameel Observatory drylands food security and resilience early action research and evidence dialogue, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 15-16 May 2025

Ruminant Livestock Feed Balance Models – Insights from Nigeria

Presented by John Mutua (University of Edinburgh) at the Jameel Observatory drylands food security and resilience early action research and evidence dialogue, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 15-16 May 2025

Better information, more nutritious diets for pastoralist populations

Presented by Nathan Jensen (University of Edinburgh) at the Jameel Observatory drylands food security and resilience early action research and evidence dialogue, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 15-16 May 2025

Weather shocks, conflict and effective, scalable interventions

‘Lightning talk’ presented by Nathan Jensen (University of Edinburgh) at the Jameel Observatory Community of Practice meeting, Addis Ababa, 13-14 May 2025

Overview of the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action

Presented by Alan Duncan and Nathan Jensen at the Jameel Observatory Community of Practice meeting, Addis Ababa, 13-14 May 2025

Enhancing weather and climate information services (WCIS) for pastoralists

‘Lightning talk’ presented by Claire Bedelian (Mercy Corps) at the Jameel Observatory Community of Practice meeting, Addis Ababa, 13-14 May 2025

Integrating forecasts based on machine learning and anthropometric data into Kenya’s National Drought Monitoring Authority

‘Lightning talk’ presented by Susana Constenla-Villoslada (University of California, Berkeley) at the Jameel Observatory Community of Practice meeting, Addis Ababa, 13-14 May 2025

Harvesting resilience: Enhancing community early warning systems in the Horn of Africa

‘Lightning talk’ presented by Aurelie Walker (Urban Foresight) at the Jameel Observatory Community of Practice meeting, Addis Ababa, 13-14 May 2025

Strengthening Proactive Adaptation, and Early Action Systems to Enhance Food Security and Resilience to Multiple Hazards among Pastoralists in the Borana Zone, Ethiopia

‘Lightning talk’ presented by Jannie Nielsen (ADRA Denmark) at the Jameel Observatory Community of Practice meeting, Addis Ababa, 13-14 May 2025